Daily flooding by 2080 predicted if nothing done

Townwide flood mitigation meeting held

Originally published to the Ocean Star on February 27, 2026

BAY HEAD — Nearly 40 residents filled the chairs of the Bay Head Fire Hall on the morning of Saturday, Feb. 21, when the Bay Head Environmental Commission Flood Subcommittee held a town-wide meeting to update the public on the myriad of different ways the group has been monitoring and planning to combat the increasingly common issue of flooding.

Rick McGoey, a member of the commission, led the presentation, which covered flood terminology, trends and expectations, potential impacts on real estate, ongoing projects and projects completed.

McGoey shared data that predicts Bay Head could experience flooding on a daily basis if no action is taken by 2080.

The presentation reflected the findings of several reports and projects carried out by the Bay Head Environmental Commission, mayor, council and department of public works, as well as Van Cleef Engineering Associates, Colliers Engineering and Design and Ocean County Engineering, he said.

FLOOD TERMINOLOGY

McGoey explained to the audience terms that are used to describe flood levels. Chief among these terms was NAVD88 or North American Vertical Datum of 1988, which is a standard fixed point that is used to measure tide levels throughout North America. Tide levels are denoted by how far above or below the datum they appear.

He explained the three levels of flooding; nuisance, major and catastrophic. A nuisance flood is one where the water level rises 1.4 feet above NAVD88. A major flood occurs when the water level rises between 1.4 and 2.4 feet above NAVD88. Flood levels higher than 2.4 feet are considered catastrophic.

Thankfully, McGoey said, Bay Head has not experienced a day of catastrophic flooding since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

In 2024, Bay Head was subject to 116 days of flooding, with seven classified as major floods and 109 as nuisance floods.

FLOODING TRENDS/EXPECTATIONS

McGoey showed data from as far back as 1906 taken from Scow Ditch that shows that not only are tide and flood levels increasing, but the rate at which they are increasing is also accelerating.

Citing data from Colliers Engineering & Design, McGoey said that if no action is taken by 2080, Bay Head and neighboring towns could expect to experience 365 nuisance flood days in a year. Even one day of nuisance flooding can cause road blockages, restricted access to critical infrastructure, business closures and blockages of emergency evacuation routes.

The estimated financial loss if mitigation does not occur before 2080 is $27,066,000 per year for Bay Head and $28,009,000 for Mantoloking, according to a Back Bay Interim Report released by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 2025.

In addition to overall levels rising, McGoey said that the coast will not only see a rise in average, high and low tide, but will also see a widening of the gap between high and low tide, leading to a wider range of tide levels.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON REAL ESTATE

McGoey said that residential property values have increased by 21.5% per year since 2019, and he speculates that flooding may affect property values further.

“It’ll take work from everyone in the town,” he said. “We need to make the decision, do we want protection or do we want to be vulnerable?”

“If Bay Head becomes known as a ‘flood-prone’ town, home value increases may change,” McGoey explained. However, he said, “If Bay Head becomes known as a ‘flood-protected’ town, home values should continue to increase.​”

A major takeaway, McGoey said, is that the problem of flooding is getting worse, and it will require town support to implement flood mitigation changes.

WHAT IS BEING DONE?

The ongoing mitigation strategy involves attacking the problem using four major installations – a flood control gate, an integrated flood barrier, a new pump station, and a living shoreline.

The flood committee and Colliers engineering are in the planning stages of installing a flood control gate on Scow Ditch, a tidal waterway between Barnegat Bay and Twilight Lake, in order to block surge water from entering Bay Head through Barnegat Bay. Multiple designs have been studied and are being evaluated for their efficacy, cost, environmental impact and aesthetic impact.

In order to emphasize the likelihood that blocking Scow Ditch would prove effective, McGoey showed photos and data taken from June of 2013, when the waterway was blocked for roughly eight weeks. He said that a sewer line and two dams were installed, and that despite storms occurring on June 8 and 28 that year, no flooding occurred around Twilight Lake.

An integrated flood barrier comes in the form of a new bulkhead ordinance that is planned for mid-2026, McGoey said. The ordinance would require property owners to install bulkheads to a height of greater than 4.5 feet NAVD88 when a new bulkhead is being installed​ and when the cost to repair an existing bulkhead exceeds 50% of the value of a new bulkhead​. This is meant to slowly integrate the new bulkheads over time, as regular maintenance is performed, and ensure new bulkheads meet the requirement. “​With the current sea level rise rate of​ (approximately) 2 inches every 10 years, an 18-inch​ increase will provide approximately 90 years of protection,” McGoey said.

A pump station, similar in design to existing stations on Mount Street and Goetze Street, is planned to be installed between Twilight Lake and Barnegat Bay to remove storm water from Metcalfe Street and the south side of West Lake Avenue. Pump stations are made up of a gazebo-style building housing pump controls and a backup generator, and the actual pump station, which is installed below the surface of the road. Multiple locations for the pump station were evaluated, and officials say there is currently no decision on where the pump will be installed.

The fourth installation is a “living shoreline,” or berm, around Twilight Lake. Living shorelines use natural materials and vegetation to stabilize shorelines and reduce erosion. The proposed berm would raise the shoreline to 4.5 feet.

PROJECTS COMPLETED

The Environmental Commission has been busy with flood mitigation projects for over two decades. As part of the townwide update, McGoey included a breakdown of just some of the dozens of projects and measures that have already been completed and implemented.

From 2000 to 2002, the Bay Head School storm drain system underwent major upgrades. Further upgrades were made on the Strickland Avenue and Osborne Avenue storm drain systems in 2008 and 2022.

Storm drain check valves were installed at Johnson Road, Metcalfe Street, Twilight Road and Lake Avenue between 2022 and 2024.

Certain parts of Lake Avenue, Bridge Avenue and Park Avenue were raised several inches and equipped with drain systems and check valves between 2019 and 2024. Lake Avenue, in particular, was raised a total of 18 inches during this time.

A new bulkhead was installed at the Bridge Avenue Bridge in 2025, and a new state-of-the-art street sweeper was purchased in 2024 to reduce sand and other particle buildup in the storm drain systems.

Ecological impact

During the presentation, one resident raised ecological concerns about implementing multiple strategies at once.

“From an ecological perspective, and that’s my SAT word of the day,” Joe Murphy asked, “how is this going to affect Twilight Lake and Scow Ditch? Is one solution more preferable?”

McGoey explained that part of the modeling included environmental impact reports, and what they found was that any alterations to the flow of water through Scow Ditch will affect Twilight Lake directly.

Twilight Lake, he explained, has a high level of nitrates and phosphates, and ecologically relies on regularly being “flushed out” by Barnegat Bay. Because of this, flood gate designs that restrict flow when not in use were phased out early in the design process, and the designs being considered will only be in use when it is absolutely necessary.

He said that the “back and forth” among engineers and the DEP is ongoing, and they are working to find a solution with minimal environmental impact.